Shipping & Freight News

The freight economy is operating under pressures that have not fully revealed themselves yet. The effective tariff rate in the US is the highest seen since the 1930s, and their impact on demand and inflation continues to work its way through the system. These effects do not show up overnight. They take time to develop, and in the meantime, the trucking industry is being shaped more by supply-side constraints than by any meaningful surge in freight demand.

“There are a lot of things going on the supply side that I don’t think everybody has fully appreciated,” says American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello. “This started well before where we sit today.”

Fleets began feeling margin pressure well before today’s headlines, and many smaller operators relied on cash reserves built during the pandemic years to stay afloat. Those reserves are now largely depleted. As a result, equipment replacement has slowed dramatically. New trucks are significantly more expensive, trade-ins are holding onto older equipment longer, and the used truck market is tighter than many shippers realize. This contraction in capacity is structural, not temporary, and it is unlikely to reverse quickly without meaningful changes to cost pressures.

While some shippers continue to wait for a demand-driven rebound, the more important dynamic is happening on the supply side. Capacity has been steadily tightening as carriers delay purchases, defer upgrades, and, in some cases, exit the market altogether. This is not the result of a sudden collapse, but of a prolonged downturn that has lasted longer than most cycles the industry has experienced.

Will supply-side pressures find relief in 2026? Find the answer to this question and more in the latest episode of the Stay In Your Lane Podcast.

Compounding the challenge is the combination of rising costs and soft freight volumes. When freight is down and operating costs are up at the same time, the industry effectively finds itself in a form of stagflation. That is not a sustainable equilibrium, and it explains why so many fleets are cautious about expansion even when spot conditions occasionally improve.

Meanwhile, the question of a driver shortage remains at the surface, but the reality today is more nuanced. There is not a broad, across-the-board shortage of drivers in the current market. Many fleets report having enough drivers for the amount of freight and equipment they are running. However, that does not mean driver challenges have disappeared. The issue has always been as much about quality as quantity. When a fleet needs to replace a driver, applications may come in, but only a fraction meet qualification, safety, and experience standards. That constraint has not gone away.

One of the clearest signals of this ongoing quality challenge is compensation. Even during one of the longest downturns the industry has faced, fleets continued to raise driver pay. Companies do not increase wages in a weak market unless they are competing to attract and retain qualified professionals. That behavior speaks volumes about how valuable experienced, reliable drivers remain.

Another structural issue is the age profile of the trucking workforce. Younger generations are underrepresented behind the wheel, particularly in over-the-road roles. Estimates suggest that only a small single-digit percentage of the U.S. truck driving workforce comes from Generation Z, and many of those roles are regional or local rather than long-haul.

Training schools continue to report that the average new entrant is in their 30s, reinforcing the idea that truck driving is rarely viewed as a first career. Instead, it often becomes a second or even third career later in life. While this pathway works for many, it raises long-term questions about how the industry replenishes its talent pipeline.

The path forward points back to training. With the right investment in structured, individualized training programs, younger drivers can be prepared safely and effectively. Recent efforts to crack down on substandard CDL training operations are a positive step toward improving overall driver quality and industry safety.

“If we can train an 18-year-old to fly a fighter jet, we can train them to drive a tractor-trailer,” says Costello.

For shippers and carriers alike, understanding these supply-side realities is critical. Capacity, driver quality, and equipment availability will continue to influence pricing and service levels long after headline economic indicators begin to improve. The road ahead will reward those who plan for structural change rather than waiting for a simple cyclical rebound.

Triple T Transport’s 3PL solutions are designed to help shippers navigate today’s unpredictable market conditions. By leveraging a broad carrier network, real-time market intelligence, and disciplined carrier vetting, Triple T helps customers secure reliable capacity even when traditional options tighten. Our flexibility allows shippers to adapt quickly as lanes shift, delivering consistency, resilience, and strategic support in a freight market where certainty is increasingly hard to find.