Shipping & Freight News

Economic headlines often focus on GDP, trade balances, and global sourcing shifts. But for transportation providers, the more relevant question is simple: what’s actually moving, and how does that translate into freight demand?

In traditional GDP accounting, imports are a drag on economic output while exports contribute positively. But in freight, both represent opportunity. Whether goods are arriving from overseas or leaving U.S. ports, they require transportation. Imported products move inland, and exported products move to ports and border crossings. From a goods-transport standpoint, both generate freight activity.

“If it’s exported, it gets moved. If it gets imported, it gets moved. So both of those, when we look at the goods transport sector of GDP, those are both net positives for us,” says Eric Starks, Chairman at FTR Transportation intelligence.

While import volumes have been sluggish, they have not collapsed. What has changed is where those goods originate. We’ve seen reduced volume from China, increased sourcing from other Asian countries, and stronger flows into Mexico and northbound into the U.S. under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). This shift hasn’t eliminated freight demand, but it has reconfigured supply chains. Companies are still recalibrating sourcing strategies, transportation lanes, and inventory positioning. That uncertainty has introduced anxiety into the market, even if total freight volumes remain relatively stable.

Broad freight metrics can obscure what’s actually happening beneath the surface. Tender rejection rates or overall capacity numbers tell part of the story, but equipment segments behave differently.

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The “big three” over-the-road segments—dry van, refrigerated, and flatbed—each operate under distinct demand drivers and capacity constraints. Refrigerated markets may experience higher tender rejection rates due to perishables and tighter timing requirements. Flatbed markets have shown relative strength compared to historical seasonal norms. Dry van, as the largest segment, often absorbs shocks differently than specialty markets. Aggregated data may show equilibrium, but individual segments can experience entirely different conditions. That’s why a top-down view that accounts for granular segmentation is important when evaluating market health.

Active truck utilization is currently hovering above historical averages. On the surface, that suggests tight capacity. However, the underlying market conditions are more nuanced. Fewer drivers are actively seated in equipment, carriers are exercising hiring caution, and heavy truck production is operating largely at replacement levels rather than expansion. There is sufficient equipment in the system, but driver deployment decisions are keeping utilization elevated. This creates a market that appears tight, even if demand itself hasn’t dramatically surged.

Even simple, day-to-day realities such as weather patterns have a part to play in broader economic trends. Winter weather events in January created temporary capacity constraints across multiple markets. However, the impact was less severe than similar past disruptions.

This event was well-forecasted, giving carriers and shippers time to preposition equipment, adjust routing, and move inventory ahead of the storm. The result was modest rate increases rather than dramatic spikes. This underscores an important truth: the market currently operates near equilibrium. There isn’t significant surge capacity sitting idle, but demand also isn’t strong enough to trigger runaway pricing.

We are not seeing a meaningful breakout in demand, a collapse in pricing, or severe structural tightness. Instead, we’re observing a balanced, cautious market where small disruptions can create temporary pressure, but systemic volatility remains limited.

“We’re very careful at equilibrium…which is allowing the market to show stability where it maybe isn’t because of demand,” Starks explains.

Today’s freight market is defined by reconfigured global supply chains, segment-specific capacity dynamics, high (but somewhat artificial) utilization, and limited surge capacity. For shippers, this means planning and forecasting remain critical. For carriers, disciplined equipment and driver management will define margin stability.

The broader economy may present mixed signals. But from a freight perspective, the system is functioning—just with narrower margins for error.

At Triple T Transport, our team monitors equipment availability, market segment shifts, and regional disruptions in real time so our customers don’t have to. Whether you need scalable truckload solutions, temperature-controlled capacity, or flexible routing strategies, we act as an extension of your logistics team, positioning your freight ahead of disruption and keeping your supply chain moving with confidence. Contact Triple T Transport today to learn more about our industry-leading 3PL services.