Shipping & Freight News

After a challenging 2025, the trucking industry finds itself in unfamiliar territory. Freight demand has not surged. Shipping volumes remain uneven, and cracks are beginning to form in the capacity side of the market. For carriers, shippers, and logistics professionals across the supply chain, this creates a recovery dynamic that is slower, more complex, and far less predictable than what the industry experienced in recent years.

“I’ve seen a lot of cycles, but nothing quite like this,” says American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello. “They’re all a little different. This one’s very different.”

The broader U.S. economy is not in an official recession, but the goods-producing side of the economy remains under pressure. Construction activity remains weak. Manufacturing output has struggled to gain traction. Job cuts across manufacturing over the past several months point to ongoing uncertainty rather than renewed confidence.

Consumers are still spending, but unevenly. Higher-income households continue to perform relatively well, while a large share of consumers remain constrained by elevated prices and lingering inflation effects. The result is a “K-shaped” economy—one that does little to generate the broad-based freight demand needed to quickly lift trucking volumes.

Simply put, demand has not yet returned in a meaningful way. Any improvement in trucking conditions is not being driven by a surge in freight.

“If freight were to surge, which I don’t think it will, that would be much easier,” Costello says. “But being that it’s supply driven, it could take a little longer.”

Despite soft volumes, carriers are beginning to see capacity tighten in certain lanes and regions. This shift is being driven almost entirely by the supply side of the equation.

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Over the past two years, the market has steadily purged excess capacity. Carrier attrition, financial pressure, and regulatory enforcement have all contributed to fewer trucks operating in the system. That process continued throughout 2025 and is now becoming more visible in daily operations.

Supply-driven recoveries are fundamentally different from demand-driven ones. They are slower, harder to navigate, and less obvious in their early stages. But once they take hold, the impact can be significant, especially when demand eventually returns.

One of the most important factors in today’s market is truck production. New Class 8 truck builds are running well below replacement rates. That means every month, total truck capacity shrinks simply because older equipment is being retired faster than it is being replaced.

Many fleets are responding by delaying purchases altogether. Rising equipment prices, driven by a combination of environmental regulations and tariffs on imported components, have made new trucks significantly more expensive. For some carriers, the math now favors higher maintenance costs in the short term rather than investing in new equipment.

Low-buy or no-buy strategies are becoming common, and manufacturers are already projecting subdued truck sales through 2026. This sets the stage for a prolonged capacity constraint that cannot be reversed quickly when conditions change.

Tariffs on imported truck components and equipment are also having downstream effects that extend well beyond equipment pricing. Roughly half of what the U.S. imports are semi-finished goods or parts used in domestic manufacturing. Higher costs for those inputs place additional pressure on U.S. manufacturers, which in turn dampens freight demand.

“I am not overly optimistic about the freight side of things,” warns Costello. “We have not seen anywhere close to the full impact of the tariffs.”

The last major trucking boom was driven by explosive demand and abundant capital. Capacity could be added quickly because revenue supported rapid expansion. That playbook does not apply this time.

This recovery is being shaped from the “back end” of the market. Capacity is shrinking not because freight is surging, but because fleets are under sustained financial pressure and replacement cycles have stalled. When demand eventually strengthens, the industry may find itself unable to respond as quickly as it has in past cycles.

Looking ahead, 2026 is likely to remain a year of careful navigation. Any meaningful improvement is expected to come gradually, not all at once. Carriers may see increased leverage in certain markets even without strong volumes, while shippers may face tighter conditions sooner than expected.

As capacity tightens and recovery unfolds unevenly, navigating the freight market requires strategy, flexibility, and real-time visibility. That’s where a trusted 3PL partner can make the difference. Triple T Transport helps shippers and carriers adapt to shifting supply dynamics with data-driven routing, reliable carrier relationships, and proactive capacity planning. Whether volumes are flat, tightening unexpectedly, or preparing for future growth, Triple T’s 3PL services are built to help freight keep moving efficiently without surprises.